*Note this post will be written in an iterative fashion. Stay tuned for updates. Last update: Oct. 10, 2017
This post is intended to layout my worldview and, ultimately, how that informs our investment strategy.
Let’s start with the problem. Have you seriously thought about why we’ve never encountered alien life? If not, go read this post first. Now that you are sufficiently curious and informed, here’s my belief: we are behind the Great Filter so we are either first or we are screwed. For those of you too lazy to read, the Great Filter is essentially a common extinction point for all civilizations.
The Great Filter for humans, is most likely one of two things. The first, because we currently rely on a system (Earth) with a single point of failure, an external event (e.g. big asteroid) can come along and wreck our system, and we’re screwed. The second reason is human soft skill competency (for simplicity, assume soft skills = Emotional Quotient = all non-technical skillsets), on a civilization level, does not advance fast enough to effectively manage our technological progress and we go and extinct ourselves. We’ve really only been able to extinct ourselves for about 75 years and we’ve come pretty close to doing so more than once. Not a good indicator. If you don’t believe me, here is Tyler Cowen’s take:
Sean Illing: Do you think technology is outpacing our politics in dangerous, unpredictable ways?
Tyler Cowen: Of course it is. And the last time technology outpaced politics, it ended in a very ugly manner, with two world wars. So I worry about that. You get new technologies. People try to use them for conquest and extortion.
So that’s the bad news. However, being an optimist, even if we are most likely screwed and the Great Filter is ahead of us, I believe we can advance our skillset quickly enough to make it through the Great Filter. If you don’t believe me that we can advance our own skillset, go listen to Walter O’Brien in this podcast at 15:00 and 39:45. In short, I believe EQ is the key to human progress and I want to invest in companies that advance EQ in a demonstrable way.
More to come.
Oh, and please have a business model other than selling ads… here’s why.